秘鲁：气候移民激增

秘鲁的海岸线长度超过3000公里，生态系统极易受到气候变化的影响，是人口流动与自然事件高度相关的典型国家之一。

劳拉·贝尔德霍（Laura Berdejo）

联合国教科文组织

境内流离失所问题监测中心（IDMC）的数据显示，2008年至2019年，秘鲁3300万人口中约有65.6万人因遭受自然灾害而被迫迁移。经预测，由于环境危害将日益频繁和剧烈，估计到2100年这种迁移的规模会达到前所未有的程度。

利马电视台的女摄像师利利亚娜·马克斯（Liliana Márquez）告诉我们：“关键词是‘huaico’——我们用它来指代厄尔尼诺现象中暴雨带来的山洪，这种灾难几乎每年夏天都会发生。同样的情况在秘鲁不断重演，我们国家第一次与气候有关的人口大迁移可以追溯到18世纪，当时扎尼亚河泛滥，整座城市被迫搬迁。”

厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）是导致秘鲁自然气候变化的最重要因素，其特点是太平洋表层海水温度变暖（厄尔尼诺事件）和变冷（拉尼娜事件），该现象引发的大气变化将严重影响到气候，特别是降雨模式。

秘鲁沿海地区上一次发生厄尔尼诺现象是在2017年，致使将近30万人流离失所。除厄尔尼诺之外，秘鲁的三大生态系统都面临着特定风险，均有可能引发大规模移民潮。

上一次发生厄尔尼诺现象是在2017年，将近30万人流离失所。

自然风险加剧

秘鲁的大部分人口和经济活动都集中在沿海地区（costa），当地居民饱受厄尔尼诺南方涛动现象之苦，同时还承受着频繁的干旱、无雨期，以及间或出现的高温和极端气温、森林火灾和强风。

高原地区（sierra）的大部分气象灾害都与水有关，但也不乏高温酷热的情况。库斯科等地笼罩在极寒当中，气温降到冰点以下。这里最大的危险之一是冰川消融，消融一旦加速，可能导致高原地区28%的居民迁移，同时还会威胁到秘鲁的主要水源。

最后，热带雨林地区（selva）的大规模洪水越来越多。与此同时，出现了严重干旱、河岸坍塌、水土流失、森林滥伐和极端热应力风险等现象。

秘鲁的贫困率已经超过20%，而疫情又严重加剧了各种社会不平等，在这样的情况下，诸多环境威胁导致秘鲁民众的社会经济脆弱性尤为显著。

波茨坦气候影响研究所（PIK）和国际移民组织（IOM）在2021年对秘鲁进行了一次评估，发现秘鲁有一半的国土存在经常性危害，三分之一的人口处于高风险空间，其中900多万人易受暴雨、洪水、山洪和滑坡影响，700万人面临低温和极低温的威胁，将近350万人可能遭遇干旱。

按照最坏的估计，到2100年全球升温将超过4摄氏度，这个地处安第斯山区的国家届时将面临三重严重威胁，可能导致数以万计的人口流离失所——亚马逊地区出现极端热应力，安第斯山脉的冰川几乎完全融化，以及发生更强烈的厄尔尼诺事件（将危及沿海民众）。

境内流离失所

迁移现象在秘鲁由来已久，人们会长期或临时地进行境内迁移，或前往他国。入境者历来少于出境者，人们离开祖国是为了改善工作前景、争取机会参与社会生活和接受教育，同时，为了躲避环境危害而迁移的人数也在不断增长。国际移民组织指出：“历史上的这些人口流动在全国各地形成了通畅的迁移网络，向城市和沿海输送新移民，也让更多汇款流向农村地区。”

气候移民主要在国内流动，其动态情况取决于社会人口因素——第一是年龄，年轻人迁移更加频繁；第二是贫困，穷人迁移的可能性更高；第三是性别，男性迁移的可能性略高于女性。

秘鲁人居住的这片土地有着极端的地貌和气候，为应对身边的种种危害，秘鲁人已经掌握了应对和适应策略。厄尔尼诺南方涛动决定了可捕获的海洋资源的增加和减少，渔民便遵循其中的规律沿海岸线移动；北部皮乌拉省的农民也会在旱季临时迁移，以实现收入多样化。

在高原地区，寒潮、严寒天气、冰川消融造成的水资源短缺和降雨模式变化曾经导致大规模人口流动，如今，这种流动正在气候变化的影响下加速进行。在热带雨林地区，农民将迁移作为雨季的临时性预防措施，以缓解粮食匮乏问题。

很多移民别无选择，只能在同样面临多重危险的地区重新安家，例如河床、河漫滩和城市郊区缺水的山丘。国际移民组织指出：“灾难引发的流离失所会导致民众丧失生计和财产，包括住房和其他基础设施，造成严重的社会心理创伤。”

面对这种情况，媒体在气候流离失所管理工作中所起的作用日益重要。马克斯说：“2017年山洪的受害者三年后还住在利马的帐篷里。”国际移民组织中美洲、北美洲和加勒比地区办事处移民、环境和气候变化问题区域专家巴勃罗·埃斯克里瓦诺（Pablo Escribano）注意到：“人们越来越关注气候迁移背后的那些人文故事。”

埃斯克里瓦诺说：“这些故事很有意义，观众能够由此走近受到气候变化影响和被迫迁移的人们，了解他们的实际境况。”

全球现象

除了秘鲁，孟加拉国、斐济、加纳和坦桑尼亚等国的气候迁移规模也在扩大，这些都是全球趋势的一部分。联合国难民署2021年4月发布的一份报告显示，在过去十年中，因天气事件流离失所的人数平均每年新增2150万，是因冲突和暴力流离失所人数的两倍有余。

境内流离失所问题监测中心2021年的报告显示，2020年，地球物理灾害和气象灾害导致全球共3070万人无家可归。在灾害引发的流离失所情况中，气象事件占到起因的98%。

2020年，地球物理灾害和气象灾害导致全球共3070万人流离失所。

监测中心主任亚历山德拉·比拉克（Alexandra Bilak）说：“我们的报告还显示，大多数因灾害而流离失所的人依然留在国内。”她担心这“将进一步加剧社会经济不平等”。

组织有序的应对措施

波茨坦气候影响研究所主任约翰·罗克斯特伦（Johan Rockström）指出：“秘鲁模式向我们展示了气候变化和生态系统退化在加剧人类流离失所和迁移风险方面的影响。”

埃斯克里瓦诺说：“秘鲁和邻国有着相同的生态系统——高原、沿海和热带雨林，因此所面临的现实问题可能也一样，区别就在于政府如何应对。”

他补充道：“在制定关于迁移、环境和气候变化问题的相关政策方面，拉丁美洲与太平洋国家一样，始终是比较先进的。秘鲁、危地马拉、伯利兹和智利等拉美国家已经在努力改善气候迁移政策。”

法律上还存在一些空白，不过自2000年以来，秘鲁制定了多个气候变化问题参考框架，并已出台了多部适用于气候迁移问题的法律文书和政策。

埃斯克里瓦诺说，气候迁移大多局限在国内，所以责任应由相关国家承担，不过各方也正在着手制定区域性倡议。

他还补充说：“南美洲移民问题会议（SACM）是在气候迁移问题上做法最先进的南美区域组织，目前正在制定移民、环境和气候变化政策。”

鉴于自然灾害今后将给南美洲民众造成的影响，这一步显然势在必行。

拓展阅读：

《气候变化引发了对冲突的关切》，联合国教科文组织《信使》，2018年4-6月

《将来的难民将是气候难民》，联合国教科文组织《信使》，2009年第10期。

订阅联合国教科文组织《信使》，阅读发人深省的时事文章，数字版免费。

在社交网络上关注联合国教科文组织《信使》：微博、微信公众号“联合国教科文信使”、Twitter、Facebook、Instagram。

Laura Berdejo

UNESCO

Between 2008 and 2019, around 656,000 of Peru’s 33 million inhabitants were forced to move because of natural disasters, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). It is estimated that by 2100, these movements could reach unprecedented levels, as the frequency and intensity of environmental hazards are expected to skyrocket.

“The key word here is huaico”, explains Liliana Márquez, a camerawoman for a television channel in Lima. “That’s what we call the flash floods caused by torrential rains that originate from the El Niño phenomenon, almost every summer. These have now become recurrent  in a country where the first major climate-related population movement dates back to the eighteenth century, when the Zaña river overflowed and the entire city had to migrate.”

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most consequential driver of natural climate variability in Peru. Characterized by warming (El Niño) and cooling (La Niña) events of the ocean surface temperature in the Pacific, the phenomenon causes atmospheric changes that can profoundly affect the climate – particularly rainfall patterns. 

Its most recent coastal occurrence, in 2017, led to nearly 300,000 people being displaced. But  beyond the El Niño phenomenon, each of Peru’s three ecosystems is exposed to specific risks that are capable of contributing to massive waves of migration.

While the inhabitants of the costa – the coastal region where most of the country’s population and economy are concentrated – suffer the full effects of ENSO, they are also affected by recurring droughts, periods without rain and, to a lesser extent, high and extreme temperatures, forest fires, and strong winds.

In the sierra, the highland region, most of the meteorological hazards are linked to water – although exposure to high temperatures and extreme heat in some areas, and extremely cold and freezing temperatures in places such as Cuzco, also predominate. One of the greatest dangers here is the retreat of glaciers, the acceleration of which could cause the migration of twenty-eight per cent of the inhabitants of the highlands, and also threaten one of the country’s principal fresh water sources.

Finally, the selva, with its rainforests, is experiencing an increasing number of large-scale floods. At the other extreme, there are severe droughts, riverbank collapses, erosion, deforestation, and the risks of extreme heat stress. 

In a country where the poverty rate is more than twenty per cent,  and where social inequalities have increased considerably due to the pandemic, these environmental threats further accentuate the socio-economic vulnerability of the population. 

According to a 2021 assessment of Peru by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), half of Peru’s national territory is exposed to recurring hazards, and one third of the population uses exposed space. More than 9 million people are exposed to heavy rains, floods, flash floods and landslides, 7 million to low and very low temperatures, and almost 3.5 million to droughts.

In the worst-case scenario of global warming of over 4 °C by 2100, the Andean country would face three major threats, which could cause tens of thousands of people to be displaced – extreme heat stress in the Amazon region, the almost total melting of glaciers in the Andes, and more intense El Niño events that would endanger coastal populations.

In Peru, migration – whether permanent or temporary, internal or external – has always existed historically. Traditionally, fewer people have migrated to the country than those who have left – to improve their job prospects, for social and educational opportunities, and increasingly, to escape environmental hazards. “These historical flows have resulted in strong migration networks across the country that pull new migration towards cities and the coast and boost remittances to rural areas,” the IOM notes.

Climate migrants tend to move mainly within their country’s borders, where dynamics depend on social demographics – age, with young people leaving more often; deprivation, with poor people more likely to migrate; and gender, with men slightly more likely to move than women.

Inhabiting a land of extreme landscapes and climates, the people of Peru have developed coping and adaptation strategies to deal with hazards where they live. In the costa, fishermen move along the coast, depending on the availability of marine resources determined by ENSO. And farmers in Piura, in the country’s north, migrate temporarily during droughts to diversify their income.  

In the highlands, the effects of climate change have accelerated the historically large flows of migrants due to cold waves and freezing weather, water shortages caused by glacier retreat, and changes in rainfall patterns. In the selva region, farmers migrate mainly as a temporary and precautionary measure during the rainy season, to mitigate food insecurity.

Many migrants have no choice but to resettle in areas that are also exposed to multiple hazards – such as riverbeds, floodplains and water-stressed hills in the outskirts of cities. “Such disaster displacement can take a high psychosocial toll on people who have lost their livelihoods and assets, including homes and other infrastructure,” the IOM points out. 

In this context, the role of the media in climate displacement management is increasingly important. “The victims of the 2017 huaico are still living in tents in Lima, three years later,” notes  Márquez. 

“There is a growing interest in the human stories behind climate migration,” remarks Pablo Escribano, Regional Thematic Specialist in Migration, Environment and Climate Change in IOM’s Regional Office for Central America, North America and the Caribbean.

“These stories are important because they bring audiences closer to the reality of the people who are affected by climate change and forced migration,” he adds.

The increase in climate migration in Peru – as in other countries with high rates, such as Bangladesh, Fiji, Ghana, and Tanzania – is part of a worldwide trend. In April 2021, UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, published a report showing that, over the past decade, weather-related events triggered an average of 21.5 million new displacements each year – over twice as many as the displacements caused by conflict and violence.

According to a 2021 report by IDMC, 30.7 million people worldwide were displaced because of geophysical and weather-related disasters in 2020. Meteorological events accounted for ninety-eight per cent of disaster displacement.

“Our report also shows that most of the people displaced by these disasters remain in their home countries,” explains Alexandra Bilak, director of IDMC. She fears that this “will further exacerbate socio-economic inequalities.”

“The PIK-IOM report puts the evidence on the table,” notes Johan Rockström, director of PIK. “In Peru, we are seeing the impacts of how climate change and ecosystem degradation amplify the risks of human displacement and migration, already occurring now at 1.2 ℃ of global warming.” 

“Given that Peru shares its ecosystems – sierra, costa, selva – with its neighbours, some realities may be shared too,” says Escribano. “What differentiates them is the response of the authorities.” 

“The Latin American region has been a pioneer in the development of policies on migration, the environment and climate change, perhaps as much as the Pacific,” he adds. “In several countries in the region – like Peru, Guatemala, Belize and Chile – efforts are underway to improve the policy response to climate migration.” 

Though some legal gaps remain, Peru has established several reference frameworks on climate change since 2000, and now has a wide range of legal instruments and policies applicable to climate migration.

Although most climate migrations remain internal and are therefore the responsibility of states, regional initiatives are also being developed, Escribano notes.

“In South America, the regional organization with the most advanced approach to climate migration is the South American Conference on Migration (SACM),” according to him. “It is currently working on mapping policies on migration, the environment, and climate change.” 

That is an increasingly evident necessity, given the future impact of natural disasters on the continent’s population.